Skip to content
MARKETING MIX MODELING / DECISIONS WITH EVIDENCE

Where should your next dollar go?
Let the evidence guide you.

Understand channel contributions, compare budget scenarios, and inspect uncertainty. Start with an interactive example, then validate with your own data.

8 public enginesTraceable evidenceChinese & English
No login for demoClearly labelled sample dataNo ad account connection
SPARKX / BUDGET LABIllustrative example

What changes when your budget moves?

Explore how diminishing returns affect allocation. Change a channel budget and compare the result.

Google
Explore
Meta
Compare
Amazon
Review
Open the budget lab →Schematic preview. Demo outputs use synthetic response curves.
8
Public modeling engines
AVAILABILITY VARIES BY DEPLOYMENT
2
Analysis modes
INSTANT / EXPERT
9
Visible workflow steps
VISIBLE & TRACEABLE
ZH / EN
Team communication and reports
CHINESE / ENGLISH
PLATFORM CAPABILITIES

One platform, the full MMM workflow

From data preparation to model validation, budget scenarios and reports, inspect the evidence at each step.

INSTANT MODE / ZERO-CONFIG AI

From prepared data to an analysis you can inspect

Instant Mode simplifies configuration and analysis. Runtime depends on the engine, data volume and environment. Interpret results alongside data quality and validation evidence.

STEP 1–3 / DATA & EDA

Data quality check + auto column recognition

SparkX automatically detects spend, channel, and outcome columns, runs data quality checks, and generates exploratory analysis — no manual field mapping needed.

  • Auto field mapping & validation
  • Spend / channel / outcome auto-recognition
  • EDA: trends, correlations, distributions
  • Missing data & outlier detection
eda-overview
数据上传与字段识别
STEP 4–6 / MODELING & ROI

Channel ROI & contribution attribution

AI selects and runs the optimal engine based on your data profile. You get channel-level ROI, contribution decomposition, and saturation/response curves — all transparent and traceable.

  • Auto-selected engine (see smart logic below)
  • Channel ROI & contribution decomposition
  • Saturation & response curves
  • Bootstrap confidence intervals
roi-results
渠道 ROI 与贡献归因
STEP 7–9 / INSIGHTS

AI insights + downloadable report

Claude generates an executive summary, risk alerts, and an action checklist. Ask follow-up questions in natural language. Download a standalone HTML report to share with your team.

  • AI executive summary (CN/EN bilingual)
  • Risk alerts & action items
  • Conversational follow-up Q&A
  • Standalone HTML report download
ai-exec-summary
AI 执行摘要与洞察

// Smart Engine Selection Logic

Instant Mode analyzes your data profile and automatically picks the engine that fits best — instead of always defaulting to one.

IF // small data, need speed
Ridge
Seconds to results, Block Bootstrap CI
IF // time-varying effects
SparkX TVP / Expert
Time-varying parameters capture shifts
IF // need uncertainty quantification
Bayesian
Full posterior distribution, priors settable
IF // large brand, geo data
Meridian
Google's framework, scalable to large datasets
8 ENGINES / NO LOCK-IN

One platform, every engine you need

Different scenarios call for different engines. SparkX MMM lets you choose — or let AI choose for you — without being locked into a single methodology.

Ridge
~ seconds
Fast regularized regression with Block Bootstrap CI.
Best for: quick validation, Instant Mode default
Stan
5–20 min
CmdStan NUTS MCMC — independent Bayesian second-opinion engine.
Best for: credibility cross-check
PyMC
~ minutes
Flexible Bayesian framework, custom model specification.
Best for: custom priors & hierarchy
SparkX TVP
1-3s
Knot-RBF time-varying ROI. Smooth channel betas over time without MCMC.
Best for: trend detection & daily exploration
SparkX Expert
5-20 min
Full MCMC posterior on time-varying betas. Credible intervals at every time point — competitors only give static coefficients.
Best for: Is this channel ROI trending up or down?
LightGBM
3-10s
Tree-based model with SHAP attribution. Auto-detects channel interactions, no curve-shape assumptions.
Best for: interaction detection & non-linear effects
Meridian
10-30min
Google Meridian geo-level Bayesian MMM with native geo pooling. Requires TensorFlow Probability (optional dependency).
Best for: geo-level modeling & native regional pooling
Nevergrad
~ minutes
Evolutionary algorithm for global hyperparameter search.
Best for: hyperparameter optimization
EXPERT MODE / ENGINE CONFIG

Manual engine selection & fine-tuning

  • 8 engines, configurable adstock & saturation
  • Side-by-side model comparison
  • Champion selection & re-run history
model-config
引擎配置与参数调整
CHAMPION / AUTO-SELECT

Run engines in parallel, auto-pick the best

Submit once, run Ridge + PyMC (or any combo) in parallel. Champion Mode selects the best model by R² / MAPE — and every downstream tool (optimizer, AI insights, scenarios) follows the Champion automatically.

  • One submit, parallel multi-engine run
  • Auto-picks champion by R² / MAPE
  • Drift detection when new data diverges from champion
  • Full run history, re-run from any snapshot
champion-compare
Champion 多引擎对比选优
miROAS / MARGINAL OPTIMIZATION

Optimize the next dollar, not the past

Based on Hill response curves, SparkX calculates each channel’s marginal incremental ROAS (miROAS) — the return on your next dollar. Drag sliders to see projected incremental revenue in real time. Optimize both directions: maximize incremental revenue for a given budget, or minimize spend for a revenue target.

WHAT-IF SCENARIOS

miROAS slider + response curves

Drag budget sliders per channel and watch projected incremental revenue update instantly. See the miROAS of every channel — where the next dollar earns the most. Save scenarios, compare side by side, and export the winning allocation.

  • Drag sliders, see revenue in real time
  • Maximize revenue for given budget
  • Minimize spend for revenue target
  • Save & compare scenarios
budget-planner
miROAS 响应曲线
CHANNEL BREAKDOWN

Per-channel reallocation & projected lift

See exactly how much each channel gains or loses under the optimized plan, with before/after comparisons and projected lift.

budget-channels
渠道预算重分配
AI ACTION AGENT

Turn model outputs into a next step your team can discuss

AI helps summarize channel performance, risks and candidate actions. Review recommendations against model evidence, business constraints and experiments before changing spend.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

From model output to business language

Claude distills the full model into a concise executive summary: what's working, what's oversaturated, where to cut, where to invest. Ask follow-up questions and get answers grounded in your data.

  • Executive summary (CN/EN bilingual)
  • Risk alerts: saturation, diminishing returns
  • Conversational follow-up Q&A
ai-exec-summary
AI 商业洞察解读
ACTION ITEMS

A checklist you can hand to your team

Each insight comes with a prioritized action item: reallocate X from channel A to channel B, expected lift Y%. Copy, share, and execute.

ai-action-items
AI 行动清单
REPORT EXPORT

One-click PPT & HTML export

Auto-generate an 8-slide PowerPoint with ROI charts, contribution breakdown, response curves, budget recommendations, and backtest results. Or export a standalone HTML to share with any stakeholder.

  • 8-slide PowerPoint, auto-generated (CJK font-safe)
  • Standalone HTML report, shareable offline
  • Covers: ROI, contribution, response curves, optimization & backtest
report-export
PPT 和 HTML 报告导出
DATA SCIENCE GRADE

Diagnostics your data scientists will trust

Full transparency for the technically rigorous: actual vs predicted time series, residual analysis, posterior distributions, and channel decomposition. Everything an auditor would ask for.

MODEL VALIDATION

Actual vs predicted & residual analysis

See how well the model fits: actual vs predicted time series, residual diagnostics, and parameter transparency. Bootstrap confidence intervals show the uncertainty range.

  • Actual vs predicted time series
  • Residual diagnostics & parameter transparency
  • Bootstrap confidence intervals
  • Channel decomposition (time-series contribution)
ds-diagnostics
模型诊断与残差分析
POSTERIOR & DISTRIBUTIONS

Full posterior, not just point estimates

For Bayesian engines, inspect the full posterior distribution of every parameter. Understand uncertainty at the parameter level, not just the aggregate.

ds-posterior
贝叶斯后验分布
TWO MODES / FOR DIFFERENT USERS

Instant Mode vs Expert Mode

Whether you're a marketing manager or a data scientist, SparkX MMM has a mode that fits your workflow.

INSTANT MODE

Instant Mode

Best forMarketing managers, leadership, agencies
ConfigZero config, upload and run
EngineAI auto-selects optimal engine by data profile
Results in
InteractionConversational + Pipeline
Output9-step report + AI insights + download
Budget optAuto bidirectional
EXPERT MODE

Expert Mode

Best forData scientists, analysts
Config7-step wizard, fine control
EngineManual select from 8 engines
Results in
InteractionForm config + reports
OutputFull model output + diagnostics
Budget optManual sliders + scenario saving
WHY SPARKX MMM

How SparkX MMM compares

Faster, more transparent, more flexible — without the open-source complexity.

Feature SparkX MMM Meta Robyn (OSS) Google Meridian (OSS) Stan (OSS)
Config time0 sec (Instant)DaysDaysWeeks
Results in< 2 minHoursHoursMin-hours
Needs data scientistNoMustMustMust
Process transparency9 steps, fully visibleRead the codeRead the codeRead the code
Multi-engine8 engines1 engine1 engine1 engine
Zero-config Instant ModeYes, < 2 minNoNoNo
Bidirectional optimizationYesNoBasicNo
What-if scenariosReal-time slidersManualManualNo
Chinese supportNative bilingualNoNoNo
AI insightsClaude-poweredNoNoNo
Web UIFull UICLICLICLI
展开更多

All open-source tools are free to use but require programming skills and significant setup time. SparkX MMM provides the same methodology with zero configuration.

USE CASES

Start with your business question

DTC + AMAZON
How do off-site campaigns and Amazon sales fit together?

Align spend and sales windows, check promotions, prices and stockouts, then compare budget scenarios.

Explore this scenario →
GROWTH TEAM
What evidence belongs in the next budget review?

Compare current and proposed allocation, historical support, model validation and changes requiring review.

Explore this scenario →
AGENCY
How can an agency deliver a report clients can inspect?

Explain data sources, assumptions, diagnostics and next steps so clients understand the evidence.

Explore this scenario →
DATA ANALYST
Does strong prediction make a model ready for budget decisions?

Assess holdout validation, attribution suitability and experiments. Distinguish predictive explanations from incrementality evidence.

Explore this scenario →
HOW IT WORKS

Explore, validate, then decide

The no-login demo explains the method. Real budget decisions also require your data, model validation and business judgment.

01 / MEASURE

Prepare data

Align channel spend and outcomes, including promotions, prices and stockouts.

02 / OPTIMIZE

Inspect evidence

Review diagnostics, holdout validation and uncertainty to understand where conclusions apply.

03 / ACT

Compare scenarios

Compare constrained budget allocations, export a report and plan follow-up validation.

DATA SOURCES

Connect your data, whatever the source

Upload spend and sales data from any platform via CSV / Excel. Direct API connectors for ad platforms are on the roadmap.

Ad Platforms
Google Ads Meta Ads TikTok Ads Microsoft Ads LinkedIn Pinterest Snapchat Amazon AdsXiaohongshu
Ecommerce & Analytics
Shopify WooCommerce Magento GA4 Adobe Analytics DTC / self-built
Data Input
CSV Excel (.xlsx) Any tabular format Auto field mapping
Direct Connectors
Google Ads API Meta API TikTok API Amazon Ads APISnowflake BigQuery S3
TRUST & METHODOLOGY

Make methods, evidence and limitations visible

Use established MMM components alongside diagnostics and experimental evidence. Shared components alone do not establish a reliable causal conclusion.

// Engines

8 engines covering the full spectrum: regularized regression (Ridge), full Bayesian posteriors (PyMC/Stan/Meridian), time-varying ROI (SparkX TVP/Expert), evolutionary search (Nevergrad), tree-based (LightGBM). Meridian adds native geo-level pooling for geo-experiment calibration.

RidgePyMCStanNevergradSparkX TVPSparkX ExpertLightGBMMeridian

// Methodology

Built on the same peer-reviewed MMM methodology as Robyn and Meridian, using academically established components.

Hill SaturationGeometric AdstockBootstrap CISTL Decomposition

// Calibrate, Don’t Replace

Calibrate models with experimental evidence and retain experiment and refit provenance. Check the scope of the experiment and model separately.

Geo Lift TestConversion LiftCalibration

// Data Security

The product uses organization-level access controls. Review data handling, AI services and deployment requirements in the security guide.

Supabase RLSRow-Level SecurityData Isolation
PRICING

Start free

Explore the no-login demo, then request product access for your team. Features and limits depend on the provisioned plan.

Free

$0 / mo
  • Full Instant Mode experience
  • 5 analyses per month
  • AI insights (basic)
  • HTML report download
Request product access

Pro

Contact Us
  • 50 analyses per month
  • Expert Mode + all 8 engines
  • AI insights (full 6 tabs)
  • Budget optimization + scenario saving
  • Priority support
Request Trial →

Enterprise

Custom
  • Multi-user collaboration
  • API access
  • Data connectors
  • Custom model configuration
  • Dedicated customer success
Contact Us
FAQ

Questions, answered

What is MMM and why do I need it?
Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) uses statistical modeling to measure each marketing channel’s true incremental contribution to sales. Unlike attribution, it is not limited by cookies, covers both online and offline, and reveals which channels actually drive revenue.
Do I need a data scientist?
No. Instant Mode is zero-config: upload and run. AI auto-selects the optimal engine. Expert Mode offers a 7-step wizard with manual engine selection for users with a data science background.
How fast can I get results?
Runtime depends on data size, engine and environment. Lightweight engines support quick exploration; full Bayesian sampling takes longer. The no-login demo is available immediately.
What data do I need to upload?
At minimum: daily spend data per channel and sales/conversion data. Optional: channel granularity, external variables (promotions, seasonality). SparkX auto-detects columns and maps fields.
How is MMM different from attribution?
MMM estimates channel contributions using aggregate time series. Causal interpretation depends on confounder controls, assumptions and experimental calibration, not model fit alone.
Is my data secure?
Yes. Data is isolated with Supabase Row-Level Security (RLS), ensuring each user’s data is only visible to themselves. Uploaded data is never used to train models for other customers.
What is the difference between Instant Mode and Expert Mode?
Instant Mode: zero-config, AI auto-selects engine, results in under 2 minutes, suited for marketing managers. Expert Mode: 7-step wizard, manual selection from 8 engines, full diagnostics, suited for data scientists.
Can I download and share reports?
Yes. Every analysis generates a standalone HTML report that can be downloaded and shared — no login required to view. AI executive summaries and action items are included.

Start with an interactive budget example

No account or real data needed. Understand the method before applying it to your business.

Explore the budget demo →